Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Vote Yellow...

Around Darlington, the Liberal Democrats are busy telling disillusioned supporters of both the main parties that it's safe to "lend" them their vote. My blogging colleague Mike Barker boldly states (in response to what was originally a national Tory line) that if you vote yellow, you get yellow. But is that really true?

The results of the last election here in Darlington were as follows;

Labour: 52.3%
Tories: 26.1%
LibDem: 18.5%
Others: 3.1%

So the LibDems, whilst improving on their 2001 performance, still trailed in a poor third.

For Mike to overturn Labour's majority requires an 18% swing from Labour to the Liberal Deomcrats - that would put both parties on or around the 34/35%. But the further Labour's vote is driven down, the closer the Tories get to the winning post too.

Enormous swings do occasionally happen in constituencies at General Election time - usually because of local factors. Nationally, the polls are only showing something like an 8.5% swing from Labour to the LibDems. So even if things are slightly better for the Liberal Democrats here in Darlington, (and I'm not sure they are) they are going to fall well short of the votes needed to pass the winning post - but they will drag Labour's vote down to a level where the Tories are within striking range.

One thing is clear from the doorstep - Labour waverers may be flirting with the Lib Dems (or not voting at all) but one thing they definitely do not want to see is a Tory MP or (God forbid) a Tory Government. So the question I'm asking them (very nicely, of course) is, "Are you feeling lucky?" Plenty take a look over the precipice, shudder, and tell me they'll be voting Labour on May 6th.


Anonymous said...

but only because they are being polite.

I notice that Jenny failed to appear anywhere in the town centre on Saturday while the Lib Dems and Tories were out in force.

At the moment I would hope that the Lib Dems continue campaign as its the only way the non visible Jenny Chapman has a vague chance of becoming an MP.

Michael said...

Look here Labour are in third place and falling. Your party and you in particular have been rumbled.

Inflation up to 3.5% and unemployment at a 16 year high.

You just cant bear the thought of losing so you resort to smearing. You in particular are lucky that you have not been served with a writ for slander over some of the things you have written on this blog.

People are sick and tired of Labour, the spin and the lies, the criminally icompetent way your party has managed the economy nationally and the affairs here in Darlington, the lack of respect your party shows to people, the shouting down and the arrest of people who express a contrary opinion or who put forward a different viewpoint and the gagging of people who lift the lid on what is really happening both nationally and in the affairs of DBC. I could go on.

Your party is thoroughly nasty and unpleasant and we will be well shot of you in two weeks time.

Anonymous said...

A defeatist attitude to say voting Lib Dem, doesn't get Lib Dem. How about if we all said that - we'd just end up with the same two, tired parties who take our votes for granted and give us little in return. Are Labour running scared in Darlington?

Anonymous said...

Surely a better question is:-

Are labour so certain they will lose darlington they have given up campaigning there.

And I say that as someone living in Jenny Chapman's ward. Two separate visits from Edward and the Tories so far none from Labour.

don't forget with postal votes you really shouldn't be waiting to the last week to visit everyone. I'll have voted by this time next week. said...

of course lets not forget the ID card fiasco where apparently it will save jobs in Durham passport Office yet under FOI none have been created to loose?

Nick is it not clear the people don't want ID cards ...well not for British citizens anyway and certainly not to fund this hair brained scheme, a definate yes for all the imigrants you have seen fit to let in and then loose track of!