Sunday, June 07, 2009

Placings from Darlington

Tories first, then Labour.  Ukip beat the Libdems to third place.  This is across the whole Borough rather than just Darlington constituency, so includes the rural villages which are normally in with Sedgefield.

Otherwise, everything I'm hearing suggests that Labour and the Tories will win the first 2 seats.  Its too close to call between UKIP and the LibDems however for the third seat.



Paul Leake said...

Darlington Borough provided the highest Tory vote share in the North East by my reckoning, beating North Tyneside (where the Tories regained the elected mayor on polling day) and Stockton (!) which includes a marginal seat. Still, a General Election is a very different beast and a year is a very, very long time in politics.

miketually said...

Paul, the Darlington borough boundary is different to the one used for general elections. The Conservatives probably didn't do that well in wards within the town - lots of the wards that are outside are ones that vote in Conservative Councillors.

Paul Leake said...

I am aware of that Mike, I think the only council co-terminus with a parliamentary constituency is Hartlepool.

My comparisons to other boroughs - N Tyneside includes a Tory target seat (Tynemouth) but also Labour areas. Stockton includes a Tory target (Stockton S) but also Stockton North. Darlington's villages are roughly 15% of the borough's population. I can't see how this is anything other than a good result for Darlington's Tories, and a powerful message to Darlington people that Labour risk losing the seat to the Tories if voters stay at home, vote Lib Dem or for minor parties.

Paul Leake said...

Oh, and from my analysis, the Lib Dems fell more in Darlington than in any other district of the North East. The Tories and Labour faired fairly average for the region.

Mike Barker said...

You're wrong, Paul. The Lib Dem share of the vote has not fallen at all in Darlington It was 14.78% in Darlington in 2004 and 14.79% in 2009, so our performance has remained steady - indeed, it has marginally improved.

In Stockton, for example, our share of the vote has fallen from 15.3% to 14.1%.

Across the whole region our vote fell by 0.2%, while in Darlington
it has marginally improved.

So you need new batteries in your calculator, Paul!

If you're referring to absolute votes rather than percentages, then we have also fallen less than in Stockton. Indeed, since Darlington is the smallest electoral area within the region, the fall in our absolute number of votes is much less than elsewhere.

These are the only two areas I can be bothered to calculate during my lunch break(!).

Paul Leake said...

Not so much a calculator battery as a typo.

Will recheck everything and post the whole NE breakdown on my blog later. Across the regions it looks like the LDs were fairly consistently very slightly down, with only Hartlepool and S Tyneside down more than 2% and only Sunderland, Cleveland and Northumberland up by more than 1%.

Paul Leake said...

North East regional share of vote and changes in vote share